CHAPTER XXXII.
FUTURE PROSPECTS.
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At present we are facing dangers that we never had to face before. It seems that, in our blind greed and presumption, we have put our societies and natural environment under unbearable stress.
Humanity is at a crossroad.
There are two main prospects for the future, and within these two prospects there are many different possibilities.
One of the main prospects is that the course of our evolution may continue to be determined by the same irrational and destructive philosophy of our capitalist establishment, given the fact that they have almost absolute control over the means of persuasion and coercion; and even more significant, they have a total grip on the economy and the means of production.
Moreover, by having accepted the inescapable logic of Capitalism, the mass of the public now depends on the geometrical progression of further capital development and increasing consumerism for employment and day to day survival; therefore, we have locked ourselves into a course that will sooner or later take us to complete social and ecological degeneration.
The second main prospect is that natural common sense may prevail and that we may manage to evolve towards a more rational and wholesome socio-economic organism without too much bloodshed and disruption.
This second possibility presupposes that there must be a growing world-wide movement for Humane and rational change. It seems to be obvious that without such a movement the first prospect of violence and chaos will become a reality because:
More uncontrolled capitalist development and consumerism will lead to increasing ecological degradation.
More greed, inequality and alienation will lead to more violence and social disintegration.
There is in the world today a widespread but very loose and fragmented movement towards a better society. But unfortunately most of the organisations which form this movement still believe that they can obtain their aim without changing the capitalist system.
Therefore they are expending all their energies and courage in fighting the effects rather than the primary cause of our ecological and social problems, which is Capitalism itself. Moreover, after what we have seen of the ex socialist countries, one would need a lot of courage to advance the cause for a planned or guided economic system. If these movements are really sincere, they must realise that to become effective they cannot ignore primary economic factors that are causing the problems that they are trying to overcome. Therefore, besides trying to confront the effects, they should also point clearly at the primary causes of the problems and, most important of all, they should offer a practical alternative to those people and their families whose livelihood depends from those obnoxious activities that should be discontinued.
To ignore the primary causes would be like trying to dig holes in the sea; eventually it would lead to frustration, a lot of people would lose heart; for those remaining, the act of opposition in itself, and not the ultimate result, would become the main aim and hobby.
We must offer a positive solution, a practical alternative plan or guide for a new world economy and society that would eliminate the main causes of ecological and social degeneration.
This new socio-economic alternative must avoid the obvious faults of both the capitalist and socialist systems; it must have definite principles, they must be put into practice, they must be made to work, and they must be seen to work. There are different ways by which this transformation could be achieved: In my opinion there are three main possibilities, and I will try to outline them in general terms in the order of their desirability, not their probability.
The first one would involve a voluntary and conscious transformation of capitalist economy and society with the participation of the more enlightened sections of the establishment.
The second would involve the growth and gradual development of a new economy and society from within the old one in the same way as other societies, like Christianity for instance, have evolved in our history. This second alternative could be associated with the first and could be promoted at the same time.
The third possibility is not an alternative that we can choose. It is a protracted process of revolutions and repression in different places at different times with different intensity, with all the Human tragedy and cruelty involved. This has already been going on with different intensity, but it will become more intense if any one of the two previous alternatives is not allowed to develop or it is repressed.
Seldom in history a radical social and economic change has been promoted and accomplished by en entrenched ruling elite by its own accord. We could cite the conscious change of the economy and society in Japan during the nineteenth century, and there the feudal elite itself, who promoted it, was the main beneficiary.
Today there is one very slight hope that such a change supported or promoted from the top, may be possible in capitalist society. At least there is a chance that a sizeable section of the middle class and a section of the managerial class may be enlightened enough to see the necessity for a transformation, and may see the long term advantage that such a transformation could bring to the society, including themselves and their own children.
These are some of the main reasons
The present problems are threatening everybody, regardless of social class.
At present, many of the capitalists' own children are suffering because of the degeneration of capitalist society.
Wealthy people are facing increasing threats to their persons and property therefore they are forced to isolate themselves within complex security systems.
An increasing number of people at the top levels of our society are insecure because of the rising pressure of competition and fear of unemployment.
They are confused about the future, and many may already realise that there are no rational solutions within the existing system.
It is possible that Fascism may become a threat again. As it has proved to be a scourge for Humanity, many capitalists may be reluctant to accept such an alternative to save the system.
They know that in a new society their knowledge and organising experience would be important and appreciated in the rationalisation of a complex industrial economy. By promoting a new society and participating in its economic organisation, they would ensure a place for themselves relative to their ability.
There are probably more factors that could convince a section of the establishment that a change is inevitable and desirable, and that it would be better for everybody if it could be brought about in a peaceful and positive way.
One of these factors is the thought about the alternatives of violence and de humanisation that the whole society would be facing if it was denied a peaceful transformation.
In any way, we are already continually changing; but within our present system these changes come in twisted ways and they produce negative results.
There are no class, religious, national or racial limitations to be a person of good will. All that is needed is natural common sense and a sincere desire for personal regeneration within a more harmonious society.
Now a peaceful planned economic transformation could prevent the hardship of economic disruption inherent in a violent revolution.
Such conscious, programmed transformation could be effected over the period of a generation, our capitalist economy being transformed one section at the time in the most Humane way possible.
People who would be displaced from obsolete or obnoxious industries would be offered compatible alternative occupations or further education and retraining.
The young people coming out of school would readily take their position in the economy of the new society. No one would have to fear unemployment or a loss in the standard of living during a peaceful planned transformation.
There would be no need for anyone to be idle, there would be so much to do and there would be such enthusiasm and excitement for the young generation; this may restore the natural idealism of youth.
This may be just a dream, but the fact that it may never have happened on such a scale in our history does not mean that it could not happen in the future. On the small scale it happens all the time, within families, within groups of friends, within small communities and organisations. Why could not this happen in the larger family of Humanity?
The capitalists are continually changing and transforming their businesses, and the politicians are continually changing the conditions of life for the public; they call it "restructuring", "rationalisation", etc. and they do not care very much about what happens to the unemployed and to their families. They say that it is an economic necessity: that it is for the good of the country; how much would they scream if it was done to them. No change is impossible for them when it concerns their profits, but they tell us that it is impossible when it concerns the public interests of a society.
Today, with our advanced production and communication technology at our service, motivated by the pressing necessity to save our children's future, and with a simple philosophy resting on basic Human Principles, a positive transformation could be possible. The material requisites are now available. We need to revive the conscience of honest people and to fire the idealism and enthusiasm of the young.
The second way by which we could achieve the transformation of our society is to gradually create a new economy and a new society from within the old one, but it would be a slow frustrating struggle.
Once the main principles are agreed upon, we should start to put them into practice wherever we are and within any particular circumstance in our existing society and economy.
Early Christianity was a radical social and economic Movement. It was mainly for this reason that it was persecuted, and it is still persecuted today whenever it practices its early basic principles within societies based on the exploitation of man by man. In Human history, Christianity is only one example of a new socioeconomic organism that grew from within one that was degenerating.
In the present situation, people of good will and determination should join and form communities wherever they are. They could develop in their own way, in relation to each particular situation.
Every community should try to complement and support the others, united in a worldwide movement. If they follow the main principles, even if in different ways, the results should be similar: there should be a great variety of experiences and forms, but the essence should be the same.
Individual motivation would be of relative importance if all would follow the same main principles, and all would seek to achieve similar results.
If we sincerely want the same things, that is to become better Human beings in a more just and peaceful society with a more Humane and rational economy in harmony with nature, then it would be of relative importance whether some people are motivated by religious beliefs and love of God, some by love of Humanity and Nature, most by the desire to survive in a better world.
There are many persons of good will in all levels of society and in every field of activity, and there are a great number of people out of work, discarded from capitalist economy, who are reduced to a meaningless existence.
By forming new communities, these people could find in cooperation new ways to improve their lives and new feelings of participation and purpose. There are many ways by which they could cooperate.
By combining their resources and their imagination, by using any means at their disposal, they could start their own economies partly connected to, or independent and in competition with the existing one, but always related and complementing other communities that have the same principles; Good examples are the early kibbutz in Israel and the popular organizations in the Basque region of Spain.
Whether in industrial or rural areas, gradually, from humble beginnings, they could grow in size and purpose; they could acquire land, factories, they could join into contracts with existing farming associations or individual farmers etc. As capitalist economy is contracting, they could gradually take over, putting into practice in the process of production the principles of cooperation, elimination of waste of labour and materials, etc. Therefore, in these new communities, technology would become a servant, and the use of industrial robots and the computer would become an advantage instead of a threat to the working people.
Unfortunately it will not be easy and as the problem of Global Warming requires an urgent solution; this attempt could only be effective in conjunction with the other.
As soon as such movement will start to grow, it will tend to erode capitalist economy. Therefore, it will attract opposition and even repression from the old establishment and society, as it happened in the past whenever there were attempts to form similar communities. Opposition will take many forms, from indirect laws and regulations to curtail and hamper their development, to outright violence.
Opposition will come from many different sections that have an interest in the continuation of the old society. The ruling elites will be forced to drop the pretence of democracy, they will have to adopt a position of open injustice, and this will cause violence and a polarisation of society.
People who are working and have a place in the old society will feel threatened by the growth of the new Movement. Therefore it is important that alternative employment and wholesome existence must always be available for them within the new economy and society at any time they may decide to join it, as they are threatened to be discarded from the old. If they see that the new society is more secure and more fulfilling than the old, and if they see that they are welcomed within the new communities, they may lose the interest to fight for an unjust and lost cause.
As much independent each community may be, they all must be related and always be in touch with one another. Moreover, it is essential that they actively cooperate and coordinate their actions worldwide on those issues from which Human survival depends, mainly peace and social and ecological harmony.
It is important that such a strong Movement should start soon because there is always present the possibility that an ecological, or nuclear, or chemical, or biological disaster may suddenly cause chaos on the planet. In the aftermath of such eventuality, if any possibility is still left for survival, any group that may still be organised would have an advantage. Therefore it is essential that there must already exist a basis of a Movement for a new more rational society, whose embryos are disseminated all over the Earth.
If the first or the second of our alternatives will not materialize, or if after materializing they will be repressed, then the third possibility will become inevitable, whether we like it or not.
Frustration promotes desperation, and desperation produces desperate actions. There are always people prepared to give their life to promote that of their children, there are always people with hot temperaments prepared to risk their life rather than submit to injustice, there are always a number of people for whom revolution of one kind or another has become a way of life, there are always people who will accept any sacrifice to promote their ideals.
A mass of people is not always needed to start a revolution.
Revolutions are usually started by minorities in a desperate economic or social environment. The majority of people are gradually drawn in by gravitation and by force of events. Most social revolutions start peacefully but eventually end up in violence: tit for tat, they gradually escalate.
In a desperate social environment, revolutionary minorities can never be completely eliminated: sooner or later they will form again.
Ideas cannot be repressed as long as the situation that has caused them to grow continues to exist. Displaced or misplaced people will always try to change the existing socioeconomic environment and form a new one in which they can fit.
While they are only small minorities they are not a great threat to the established order, but when a great number of people are being displaced they become an irresistible force for change.
Ruling elites are very much aware of this, and they are very carefully monitoring the percentages. From history, this seems to be the general nature of social change and revolution.
It seems to me that the best way by which we can avoid the tragedy of revolution or terrorism is to make sure that either the first or the second of our main peaceful alternatives for a transformation of society are successful. We must understand this important point, and accordingly we should make every effort to succeed.